Fantasy football is about value. Value is your draft, value in a trade, value in free agency/waiver wire. The team that can maximize its value in those three areas gives itself the best chance to win at the end of the season.

Culpepper, Chad Johnson among top players sliding

Posted: Tuesday October 3, 2006 11:48AM; Updated: Tuesday October 3, 2006 11:48AM

By Craig Davis, Special to SI.com, FantasyFootball.com

Fantasy football is about value. Value is your draft, value in a trade, value in free agency/waiver wire. The team that can maximize its value in those three areas gives itself the best chance to win at the end of the season. Therefore, we feel it necessary to track the value of the movers and shakers on the offensive side of the ball each week. I'm going to use their average auction dollar value as a guide to determine how many "dollars" they increase, or decrease, in value. Also keep in mind that a player's value will increase (or decrease) more than usual if he puts together a string of solid (or putrid) performances.

Quarterbacks

Stock on the Rise

Vince Young, Tennessee (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $1.25)
He was hardly sparkling in his debut, but what he did do was solidify the job for the future. He was at least good enough to keep Kerry Collins on the bench and secure his job as the starter for the remainder of the year. Though he will likely be a bench warmer (at best) in fantasy football, at least he has a starting job and, depending on the matchup, could be a decent bye-week filler. It can't hurt to add him to your roster, if he's available and you have space.

Marc Bulger, St. Louis (Preseason Value: $14.64; Current Value: $15.70)
The one thing I've noticed about Bulger is the lack of interceptions. If you look back at his history, you see Bulger struggle with interceptions. Not so in 2006... at least not so far. Bulger has thrown 141 passes without an interception, and with his three TD tosses Sunday against Detroit, his TD:INT ratio is an astounding 5:0. I'm cautiously optimistic about his future, because the schedule is so hit or miss. Nevertheless, after his sluggish start, Bulger has brought his value up to standards and then some.

Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville (Preseason Value: $3.91; Current Value: $5.50)
The Redskins defense has struggled as of late and Lefty was overdue for a big game with the weapons he has. Leftwich had three TDs vs. one INT and threw for 289 yards after struggling in Week 3. His value was quite low in the preseason, so you can expect him to continue to take little "jumps" if he plays like this in the near future.

Charlie Frye, Cleveland (Preseason Value: $1.73; Current Value: $7.00)
It's not pretty, but it's effective. After rushing for a TD in each of his first three games of 2006, Frye decided to do his damage through the air in Week 4, throwing for just under 200 yards and three scores. If you haven't taken notice of Frye yet, I'm begging you to do so. I can't believe he's still available as a free agent in 35 percent of fantasy football leagues around the Internet. Guys, it's past time to snatch him up before your nemesis gets him.

Rex Grossman, Chicago (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $9.00)
Is he an every week starter? Wow, that's the million-dollar question. I'm not sure what to think at this point. I guess if he can throw two TDs against one of the league's better secondaries, he can do it against anyone. I saw a Bears fan in the stands who had a sign that read, "Rex, we're so sorry about everything we said about you." I think that sums it up for fantasy owners. This guy has been nothing but pure money through four weeks and I see no reason why he can't continue his dominance the rest of the season.

Stock on the Decline

Kurt Warner, Arizona (Preseason Value: $9.56; Current Value: $1.95)
Make it three weeks in a row where Warner has gone down in fantasy value. His Week 1 performance led us to believe he was over his injury issues of the past, throwing for three TDs and no picks. Since then, Warner has tossed only two TDs and five interceptions. What's worse, Warner was replaced in the fourth quarter against Atlanta by Matt Leinart, who will start in Week 5.

Daunte Culpepper, Miami (Preseason Value: $9.59; Current Value: $6.10)
Like I mentioned last week, sometimes it's not about the statistics, it's about perceived value. When most fantasy owners look at Culpepper, they see garbage. Sure, he didn't throw an INT again this week, but he's not finding the open receivers he needs to and he's scared to death to run the ball like he used to. The Dolphins continue to lose games because of his timidity and, therefore, his perceived fantasy value is continually going down. It didn't take a huge drop this week, but it's not going up, which has to concern his owners.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle (Preseason Value: $17.83; Current Value: $12.25)
Wanna know the prototype for inconsistency? His name is Matt Hasselbeck. After struggling through the first two weeks, throwing only one TD versus two INTs. Then, somehow, in Week 3 he tossed five TD passes against the Giants and put himself back on the map. Fast forward to Week 4 without Shaun Alexander and Hasselbeck struggles again, throwing two picks and finishing with less than 200 yards. Please Shaun please, come back!

Running Backs

Stock on the Rise

Laurence Maroney, New England (Preseason Value: $5.85; Current Value: $14.75)
The Patriots drafted this guy knowing Corey Dillon was likely on his last leg. I would not expect Dillon in a New England uniform next season, making Maroney that much more valuable in the weeks to come. The guy has size, speed, good hands, and a knack for finding the end zone. With two more in Week 4 against the Bengals, Maroney is making it harder and harder for Bill Belichick to keep Dillon in the lineup. Maroney carried the rock 15 times for 125 yards and two scores in the biggest upset of the day. Dillon added a score, which will damper Maroney owners' spirits for the time being, but just give it time. You'll be glad you drafted him.

DeShaun Foster, Carolina (Preseason Value: $16.64; Current Value: $17.90)
A small jump from his preseason value, but a major push from his last posted value. Despite what popular opinion is, Foster is still the starter and the more valuable RB in Carolina. I have been at odds with DeAngelo Williams lovers for at least a month, and was forced (two weeks ago) to downgrade Foster's value and increase Williams'. The tables have turned back and Foster now has the job well in hand after 105 yards and a TD.

Willis McGahee, Buffalo (Preseason Value: $32.85; Current Value: $33.90)
Sometimes a player's fantasy value is not always reflective of how they did in NFL standards. 28 carries for 78 yards is definitely nothing to get excited about, but when you add a short TD to the mix you suddenly have an average/quality fantasy performance. If you do that in back-to-back weeks, your value increases. I'm still not sold on McGahee over the long haul, but his value has increased slightly and I'm telling you right now, this is a great "sell high" opportunity. If you have the chance to deal this guy, now would be a perfect time.

Kevan Barlow, NY Jets (Preseason Value: $2.36; Current Value: $10.00)
His yards-per-carry and total rushing yardage per game is enough to make you sick. But, as previously mentioned, it's not all about yardage in the fantasy game. Barlow has quietly scored four TDs in the first four weeks of the season, including two more Sunday against the Colts. It's become pretty obvious he's the go-to guy inside the 5-yard line, which should give him plenty of opportunities for double-digit TDs in 2006. If you figure his preseason value was only $2.36, Barlow has made nice strides to make himself a legitimate RB2, though he's not there yet.

Julius Jones, Dallas (Preseason Value: $27.80; Current Value: $29.80)
Until Week 4, I was scratching my head as to why Bill Parcells felt it necessary to continue to start Julius Jones over Marion Barber at RB1. If Sunday's game against Tennessee is any indication, I guess I know why (somewhat). Jones went for 122 yards and a TD and could have done a lot more had Barber not taken nine of his carries. Folks, it's going to be this way the rest of the year. Parcells is a stubborn coach and will continue to rotate these two the rest of the way (barring injury). Two TDs in three games pushes his value up a couple dollars.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $4.10)
The entire Jaguars team struggled to run the ball Sunday against the Redskins, but part of that had to do with the fact they abandoned the run way too early. Drew, however, was a decent force in the passing game and continues to improve his value. Is he an every week starter yet? No, but you need to keep this guy on your bench (if you have him) or keep him on your radar if you're looking to make a trade.

Kevin Jones, Detroit (Preseason Value: $23.68; Current Value: $26.75)
As I've mentioned before, it's amazing what happens when you play "lesser competition". After struggling for two games against Seattle and Chicago, Jones has scored three TDs in his last two games (two Sunday vs. St. Louis) and averaged 88 rushing yards per contest. He's also catching five balls per game (regardless of competition), which is priceless in PPR leagues. Watch the schedule, watch the matchups, and play him cautiously.

Clinton Portis, Washington (Preseason Value: $52.09; Current Value: $54.00)
Sure, he received a bad rap for missing most of the first two weeks because of shoulder problems (and missing practice). However, you can't argue his talent when he plays an entire game. The Redskins are a completely different team with Portis in the backfield as he opens the passing game and gives the rest of the team a spark they didn't possess in Weeks 1 and 2. If you remember, he was a top-six pick before his separated shoulder in the preseason. After that, he was lucky to be in the top 15 overall. Two straight weeks of over 130 combined yards and at least one TD should ease the pain from early in the season.

Stock on the Decline

Chester Taylor, Minnesota (Preseason Value: $21.84; Current Value: $17.25)
After a surprising start to the season in Weeks 1 and 2, Taylor has cost his owners that last two games with less than four yards per carry and no scores. He's not even as involved in the passing game as many of us thought, dropping his value slightly below the RB2 level. The Vikings gave him the ball only 10 times on the ground for 23 yards. I have a feeling his numbers will improve as the schedule becomes easier, so this could be a decent "buy low" opportunity.

Frank Gore, San Francisco (Preseason Value: $8.85; Current Value: $22.00)
Oh how the mighty have fallen! After two weeks that placed him in the top two or three of all fantasy RBs, he has come back to earth by not reaching 100 yards and not reaching the end zone in Weeks 3 and 4. Gore found out what the rest of the league is quickly learning -- the Chiefs defense is for real. I won't fault Gore that much for his struggles Sunday as you can't really run the ball when you're losing by 100. Still, his value has taken a huge hit from two weeks ago. Remember, his value was once as high as $45.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina (Preseason Value: $8.79; Current Value: $9.00)
Don't let the dollar value throw you off... it's not an oversight. If you remember a few weeks ago, Williams actually surpassed DeShaun Foster in total value. Fast-forward back to reality and we see his value slightly better than it was in the preseason, but not quite where it was two weeks ago. Eight rushes for 62 yards might not seem like a lot, but for a team that promises to run a bunch, those are fairly solid numbers (and a great average).

Jamal Lewis, Baltimore (Preseason Value: $19.33; Current Value: $14.00)
He was holding on by a thin thread coming into Week 4 and now I think that thread broke. Lewis hasn't scored a TD since Week 1 and continues to struggle in the fantasy game. With Musa Smith as a potential successor, Lewis needs to get his act together quickly or we'll see that dreaded running back by committee in Baltimore sooner than later.

Warrick Dunn, Atlanta (Preseason Value: $19.88; Current Value: $16.30)
The Falcons destroyed the Cardinals in Week 4, overshadowing the horrid performance of Dunn for the second straight week. Dunn rushed for 55 yards on 19 carries and is not being involved in the passing game because Michael Vick would rather run than pass. Dunn struggled Monday night against New Orleans in Week 3 and has his fantasy owners concerned. This is one of the best rushing offenses in the league, so he should be able to turn it around. Still, you can't look past his recent performances as a possible sign of things to come.

Wide Receivers

Stock on the Rise

Andre Johnson, Houston (Preseason Value: $15.38; Current Value: $23.60)
With his performance Sunday against the Dolphins (9-101-1), Johnson has gone from a WR2 to a WR1. I dare you to find me a more consistent WR in the fantasy game. You can't. He has NEVER disappointed this year and has provided his fantasy owners with at least 10 fantasy points (in non-PPR leagues, mind you) in any of his first four contests. Call him a stud, call him lucky, call him what you want, he's nothing but valuable in ANY fantasy league. It might be too late to buy this guy without sacrificing too much, but it can't hurt to try.

Wes Welker, Miami (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $2.10)
Welker only has value because he seems to catch at least four and a half passes per game. So, in non-PPR leagues Welker's value is not nearly as high. However, in leagues where you count not only receptions but also return yardage, Welker's value is much higher. Over the first four weeks, Welker has averaged 55 yards receiving and five returns for nearly 75 yards per game (at least). This is not a "bank breaker" but a position player who could significantly help you in deep leagues, especially on bye weeks.

Marques Colston, New Orleans (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $15.00)
I think it's safe to say this guy is the real deal. At 6-4 and 230 pounds, Colston could be a tight end but has the speed to be a very productive wide receivers. Colston added five more receptions for 132 yards and another TD. For a guy to start the season on everyone's waiver wire and then to have four straight productive games is unheard of. MC scored once in each of his first two games, then went for 97 yards on seven receptions in Week 3. I think it's safe to say Colston is a legitimate WR2 and should probably be starting every week.

Lee Evans, Buffalo (Preseason Value: $7.73; Current Value: $9.00)
It's funny how the fantasy game works sometimes. After two weeks of catching two passes for less than 30 yards, Evans has burst on the scene with 15 catches for 197 yards. His only weakness now is the lack of a TD in four games. In PPR leagues, Evans has really moved up in value averaging 7.5 per game over the last two.

Terry Glenn, Dallas (Preseason Value: $6.02; Current Value: $14.00)
I remember when Cowboys fans were grumbling about the addition of Glenn a few years ago. I wonder if those same fans are complaining anymore. After no scoring in Week 1, Glenn has reeled off three TDs in two games for a grand total of three on the season, not to mention his 75 yards per game. The signing of Terrell Owens might be the best thing that ever happened to Glenn. Big jump this week.

Roy Williams, Detroit (Preseason Value: $16.88; Current Value: $18.50)
I'll be the first to admit I was critical of his words and his play in the fantasy spectrum, but I can't deny what he's done the last two weeks. 138 yards and a score in Week 3 followed by 139 yards in Week 4 easily push him back to his preseason value, and slightly ahead. Although he didn't catch the two TD passes Jon Kitna would throw, he's clearly Kitna's favorite target and will remain a fantasy starter.

Steve Smith, Carolina (Preseason Value: $36.35; Current Value: $37.00)
I hesitated listing him here, but you can't ignore a player who misses the first two weeks of the season with a hamstring injury only to follow that up with two very solid outings in Weeks 3 and 4. Although he wasn't listed in the "stock on the decline" category (as I tried to stick to the rules), its obvious his value took a silent hit. 10 more receptions for 87 yards and a score in Week 4 have pushed his value to a season-high $37.

Reggie Williams, Jacksonville (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $5.00)
After a few very surprising performances in Weeks 1 and 2, Williams disappeared in Week 3 forcing fantasy owners to think he was an early "flash in the pan." Williams then proceeded to catch five balls for 93 yards and two scores in Week 4, causing owners to re-think his value. I saw this guy up close and personal during his senior season at Washington and figured, because of his size, he would be a very good professional player. After struggling during his first few years it appears he's finally coming into his own and figuring out this offense.

Torry Holt, St. Louis (Preseason Value: $31.17; Current Value: $33.00)
Honestly, there's really not much I can add here. Holt was expected to be a top-five WR at the beginning of the season, and after "struggling" through the first two games, Holt has found his game again, going for over 100 yards and a score in each of the last two weeks. If he can do this on a continual basis, his value will slowly climb.

Santana Moss, Washington (Preseason Value: $18.41; Current Value: $14.00)
I have to include him here after dogging this guy all season, even though it was against my better judgment. Folks, let me say what I've been saying all year long. This is exactly what he does and he's going to kill your team if you keep him. TRADE HIM, TRADE HIM, TRADE HIM!! I don't know how much clearer I can say it. Moss goes for weeks without providing anything, then bursts onto the scene with a three-TD performance and fools his owners into thinking this is what he can do on a regular basis. His value last week was all the way down to $9.00, so I had no choice but to list him here. Please don't be fooled, sell now!

Doug Gabriel, New England (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $3.50)
There's little doubt this guy is still on your waiver wire (if he wasn't picked up last week). The Patriots WR corps is in complete disarray and the only stability they seem to have is the former Raider. Although he isn't a pretty fantasy option, he does have two TDs in each of his last two games and added 65 and 57 yards, respectively. If you happen to scour the free agents in your league and you see him, it's time to make a move.

Bernard Berrian, Chicago (Preseason Value: $1.00; Current Value: $8.50)
Everyone freaked out when Berrian didn't score last week. I guess they got spoiled with his two surprising TDs in Weeks 1 and 2 and couldn't figure out if he was a fluke or just having an "off" week. If you consider that he was not drafted by anyone, you can't find many other players would qualify as the "surprise of the year" like Berrian. The Bears are a completely different offense with a healthy Rex Grossman, throwing the ball deep downfield on several occasions. This is no longer a "tough defense and run the ball" team, they are legitimate contenders in the NFC because they have all three phases of the game covered.

Stock on the Decline

Chad Johnson, Cincinnati (Preseason Value: $34.71; Current Value: $29.00)
I hate listing him here because I've always liked this guy, even back to his playing days at Oregon State. However, you have to ask yourself when enough is enough? Johnson has scored just one TD in four games and seems to be tentative in running his routes. Something isn't right with Johnson and his fantasy value has taken a huge hit. I understand struggling against Ike Taylor in Week 3, but if you can't score against the Patriots pass defense, you need to go back to the drawing board. Ouch.

Antonio Bryant, San Francisco (Preseason Value: $3.41; Current Value: $6.70)
I have a feeling some players are learning that scheduling does mean something when it comes to success. After going over the century mark in receiving yards against Arizona and St. Louis, Bryant has struggled the last two weeks against Philly and Kansas City, much more formidable opponents. Bryant went for 36 yards in Week 3 and followed that up Sunday with only 29 on two receptions. With Bryant, you're going to have to play matchups.

Anquan Boldin, Arizona (Preseason Value: $27.56; Current Value: $23.90)
The reason I list him here and not Larry Fitzgerald is simple. Matt Leinart appears to be the starting QB the rest of the way and the rookie loves Fitzgerald. He's raved about Fitz since the moment he ended his holdout and came to camp. Boldin, on the other hand, was one of Warner's favorites and will take a significant hit in value. Oh, and he was not a factor in Week 4 either (4-42), which doesn't help.

Reche Caldwell, New England (Preseason Value: $2.07; Current Value: $1.00)
The only reason I list him here was all the preseason hype he brought around his name. With Deion Branch and David Givens in new cities, Caldwell (coming over from San Diego) was expected to be a much needed addition to fill the void. So far, not so good. If you are holding onto him hoping for that "breakout" game, don't. It's time to part ways.

Tight Ends

Stock on the Rise

Todd Heap, Baltimore (Preseason Value: $9.73; Current Value: $15.00)
Heap takes a big jump in value this week, catching his third TD pass in as many games. After three straight weeks of catching five balls, Heap "regressed" to only four in Week 4, but went for a season-high 60 yards and another TD. He's currently pushed himself into the top tier at TE and has been the most consistent at the position.

Kellen Winslow, Jr., Cleveland (Preseason Value: $3.13; Current Value: $11.80)
Add another dollar to his value as he found the end zone again in Week 4 along with a mere 31 yards. The Browns might be a struggling team, but Winslow is one of the elite TEs in the league and should be on your roster, if possible.

Stock on the Decline

Antonio Gates, San Diego (Preseason Value: $23.82; Current Value: $17.50)
He hasn't been horrible, but he also hasn't lived up to preseason expectations. Gates was supposed to be the clear-cut No. 1 tight end in fantasy football. Granted, it's still early, but if this is any indication of what to expect the rest of the year, those of you who selected him in the third or fourth round are screaming mad right now. Was he the Chargers' leading receiver in Week 4? Yes, he was, but 41 yards on four receptions is hardly something to get excited about. Two numbers to keep in mind: 55 -- the highest number of receiving yards Gates has posted in one single game. 1 -- the total number of touchdowns Gates has in 2006.

Craig Davis is president of FantasyFootball.com. E-mail him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .